DRC Geopolitical Risks Continue to Escalate, Tin Ore Supply Deficit Widens [SMM Tin Noon Commentary]

March 24, 2025 Midday Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2504) opened lower this morning and then rebounded, closing at 2,769,700 yuan/mt at midday, a slight decrease of 0.68% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The intraday fluctuation range was 2,736,000-2,775,000 yuan/mt. Open interest decreased by 1,678 lots to 21,200 lots, indicating a wait-and-see attitude among investors. LME tin also fluctuated, reporting $34,400/mt at midday, down 2.67%. Bisie Mine Shutdown Deepens Supply Crisis: The world's third-largest tin mine, Bisie (with an annual capacity of 17,300 mt, accounting for 6% of global supply), remains shut down due to control by M23 armed forces. If the conflict continues until the end of 2025, global tin ore supply may decrease by 15,000 mt, potentially widening the supply-demand gap to 20,000 mt. Ceasefire Agreement in Name Only: Although M23 announced a unilateral ceasefire and "redeployment of troops" on March 22, the DRC government questions its sincerity, viewing it as a move to reorganize forces and consolidate control. Key mining towns like Walikale remain under M23 control, with no hope for resumption of production in the short term.